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Is the Vermont Real Estate Market Shifting? A Look at Recent Data

 

The Vermont real estate market has been a hot topic for years, with a seemingly endless shortage of homes and soaring prices. But is a shift finally underway? Our recent analysis of MLS data for three distinct Vermont communities—Montpelier, Barre, and Waterbury—suggests a more nuanced picture is emerging, with a notable increase in homes for sale.

Let's break down the numbers and see what they tell us.

The Big Picture: More Homes, More Sales

Across the board, the most significant trend is the increase in new listings. Comparing the 12-month period from August 2024 to August 2025 with the previous year, all three areas saw a substantial jump in the number of homes hitting the market.

  • Montpelier: New listings shot up by a remarkable 39.81%, from 65 to 108.

  • Waterbury: Saw a 25.00% increase, from 48 to 64.

  • Barre: Experienced a more modest but still significant 14.29% rise, from 180 to 210.

Interestingly, this surge in inventory hasn't dampened sales. In fact, all three markets saw an increase in the number of homes sold.

  • Montpelier: Led the way with a 14.86% increase in sales, from 63 to 74.

  • Barre: Sales were up 10.91%, from 147 to 165.

  • Waterbury: Saw a 4.55% bump in sales, from 42 to 44.

This is a key takeaway: while more homes are available, there are also more buyers in the market than last year, successfully closing deals.

Price and Pace: A Tale of Three Markets

Despite the common narrative of a unified "Vermont market," these towns show distinct trends when it comes to price and the pace of sales.

Pace of Sales (Median Days on Market - DOM):

While there are more homes and more buyers, the speed at which homes are selling has remained remarkably consistent. This suggests that the market, while having more inventory, is not necessarily slowing down.

  • Montpelier: Median DOM is essentially unchanged, going from 7 to 8 days.

  • Barre: Median DOM also held steady, shifting from 7 to 9 days.

  • Waterbury: The median DOM actually sped up slightly, from 6 to 9 days.

Median Sale Price:

This is where the towns diverge the most. The median sale price reflects the unique dynamics of each local market.

  • Montpelier: Continued its upward trend with a 3.33% increase, rising from $479,000 to $495,500.

  • Barre: Saw a robust 7.69% price jump, from $300,000 to $325,000.

  • Waterbury: Stood out with a -6.28% decrease, with the median price falling from $660,000 to $621,000.

This variation highlights the importance of looking at local data rather than making broad assumptions about the entire state. A price adjustment in Waterbury doesn't necessarily mean a similar trend is happening in Montpelier or Barre.

Active Inventory: What's on the Market Now?

The increase in new listings has translated into more homes actively on the market. While historical inventory data is difficult to track precisely, the current numbers show a significant number of homes available for buyers.

  • Montpelier: 24 active listings with a median list price of $517,500.

  • Barre: 33 active listings with a median list price of $299,000.

  • Waterbury: 19 active listings with a median list price of $495,000.

The fact that there are more homes available now, combined with the steady pace of sales, indicates a healthier, more balanced market than we've seen in recent years.

The "Why" Question

So, what's causing this shift? Pinpointing a single cause is impossible. The real estate market is influenced by a complex web of factors, from interest rates and global events to local employment trends and seasonal patterns. The simple answer is that more homeowners are deciding to list their properties, and while there are also more buyers, the supply is growing faster than demand.

The key takeaway is this: the market isn't "crashing," but it is evolving. Inventory has increased, giving buyers more options, but homes that are priced and marketed appropriately are still selling at a consistent pace. For buyers, this is a welcome change; for sellers, it means that while the market remains strong, the days of multiple-offer bidding wars on every single property may be giving way to a more measured environment.